National Forecast & Benchmark
Generic Congressional Ballot
Comparing high-velocity grassroots social sentiment and attention volume across Bluesky, Reddit, and X directly against the authoritative RealClearPolitics (RCP) Polling Average.
Social Media Margin
Split:
RCP Polling Margin
D +8.8
RCP Average:
52.1% D — 43.3% R
Social Divergence Spread
0.0 pts
Social enthusiasm lead over traditional polls
Social Media Margin (Blue: Dem, Red: Rep)
RCP Polling Margin
Ideological Lean by Platform
Tracking each platform's net partisan lean (D+ vs R+) over the selected timeframe.
Bluesky: D +23.2 pts
Reddit: D +11.4 pts
X (Twitter): Inactive Feed (No assumed values)
2028 Presidential Primaries
Relative grassroots enthusiasm share within each party's primary field over the selected timeframe.
Democratic Primary
Republican Primary
Forecasting Accuracy
Posts Analyzed
25,960
Predictive Lead Time
+2 to +3 Days
Ahead of traditional polls (r = +0.34)
Classification Confidence
73.1%
Verified political accuracy
2026 Actual Result
D +13.3 pts
Certified House Popular Vote
Stance Classification Breakdown
ANTI Candidate (Opposition)
12,081 posts (46.5%) • Avg Conf: 74.6%
NEUTRAL (News / Ambiguous)
10,875 posts (41.9%) • Avg Conf: 70.1%
PRO Candidate (Support)
3,004 posts (11.6%) • Avg Conf: 77.5%
2026 Election Benchmark Validation
Actual Certified Election Result:
D +13.3 pts (Certified)
Social Media Prediction (Nov 3):
Traditional Polling Average (Nov 3):
D +8.7 pts (Underestimated Dem Margin)
User Data Sources Tracked:
23,390 X/Twitter • 2,561 Reddit • Bluesky
Live Grassroots User Feed
Real-time incoming posts and comments from regular users (official PR & bot accounts excluded)
Connecting to stream...